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Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market
Advisory Service
Daily Service Sample Article
(12/28/05)
ELLIOTT AG PAGE
NOTICE: Brent will be out of town for the
next several days, so ONLY the NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS will be update
between now and Wednesday afternoon (Dec 28). HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY!
SOYBEANS: Since I can no longer make a
good case for a highly bearish, wave-c decline from the June 2005 top in
soybeans (7.57 ½), the most likely wave-count now indicates that a larger,
CYCLE-WAVE-B advance is still in progress from the Feb 2005 bottom (4.98 ½).
Therefore, once a completed, wave-[b], or wave-[x] decline can be effectively
labeled-off the June 2005 peak, traders should have a good chance to catch a
FINAL RALLY...back to the $7.00-$7.50 level. At present, however, because I can
NOT make a reasonable argument for a completed decline (from the June high), we
are looking to SELL the current advance. Once the rally from the Nov bottom
terminates, we should see a FINAL DROP to the key 5.32-5.22 long-term support
area. Anyhow, the optimum SELL-ZONE is at the 23.6%-38.2%-retracement
combination from the 2004 and 2005 continuation chart highs, or 6.25 3/4-6.32
basis Jan beans and about 6.37-6.43 1/4 in the March contract. Near-term
resistance, however, is at 6.11-6.17 1/4 Jan and 6.22 1/4-6.28 ½ March. The BEST
support for Jan and Mar beans is now at 5.98 1/4-5.93 and 6.09 ½-6.04 1/4,
respectively, with the MAXIMUM support at 5.83 3/4-5.78 ½ and 5.95-5.89 3/4
(March).
CORN: Since last weeks continuation chart
“buy-signal” in corn has now been followed by a similar “buy-signal” in the
March contract, it is highly likely that we have confirmed a completed decline
from the July top...on BOTH charts. In which case, we should now see AT LEAST a
multi-month, sideways-to-higher pattern develop, as a CYCLE-WAVE-IV,
“corrective” rally unfolds. To that end, while the nearby contract could drop
all the way back to the 1.91 ½-1.88 3/4 level at ANY TIME, prices should
eventually rally to AT LEAST the 2.19-2.21 level. The BEST upside objective
however, is at the 14.58%-30.9%-56%-retracement combination from the 1996, 2004
and 2005 highs, or 2.29-2.32. Anyhow, IF we happen to get an IMMEDIATE PULLBACK
to key support at 2.04 3/4-2.02 1/4, we’ll go LIGHTLY long the Mar contract. If
the beans first reach the 6.25 3/4-6.32 level, however, then we’ll probably
stand-aside the corn. Near-term resistance for March corn is at 2.14 1/4-2.15 ½.
WHEAT: [See New Trades] Given that the
advance from the Dec 9 low in Mar wheat (3.07) not only exceeded the greatest
duration of a rally since the Sept top, but key resistance at 3.22 3/4-3.26 1/4
was violated as well, it certainly looks like we have confirmed a completed,
wave-[1] decline. In which case, over the course of the next couple of weeks,
we’ll probably look to
reenter the short-side; once an a-b-c rally has been traced-out. Note, if in
fact the present advance is just a wave-[2] correction, then the next leg-down,
wave-[3] will put this market in an extremely BEARISH position. Traders should
be aware however, because the Dec continuation chart low of 2.92 ½ FAILED to
exceed the 2004 low of 2.82 ½, it is still theoretically possible that a MAJOR,
wave-C rally will unfold. Consequently, we have to be fairly certain that the
advance from the Dec 9 low (3.07) does indeed unfold into a BEARISH-THREE, and
NOT A BULLISH-FIVE. Key resistance for Mar wheat is now at 3.34 ½-3.36 ½ and
3.44-3.47, with the support at 3.20 ½-3.19 3/4, 3.16-3.15 and 3.09 ½-3.08 3/4.
COTTON: Given that the drop from the Oct
peak in cotton not only traced-out a 5-wave/impulse-pattern, but key support at
46.25-45.69 was also clearly MISSED in the nearby contract (50.20-49.82 basis
March), I’m inclined to try and sell the current rally. However, because I can
now make a case for a completed, CONTRACTING TRIANGLE-B-WAVE decline from the
2003 top, I think we’ll stand-aside for the next week or two, and see what
happens. Resistance for March cotton is at 55.20-55.70, with support at 52.20
and 50.20-49.82.
HOGS: Since the recent drop in the Feb hogs so far bottomed right at our
MAXIMUM, near-term support; at 64.22-63.72, it looks like the next “leg-up” to
new highs has started. Traders should keep in mind, however, once a 5-or-9-wave
rally is in place, AND our MINIMUM OBJECTIVE at 68.05-68.70 is reached, it will
be possible to label a completed advance from the Aug continuation chart low
(59.00). At which point, a HIGHLY BEARISH long-term/wave-position could be at
hand. Finally, in the event a daily close BELOW 63.72 occurs BEFORE the 68.05
level is achieved, then ALL BETS ARE OFF. In this case, another test of
long-term support at 59.20-59.00 could occur, now.
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
SILVER: Given that our expected
penetration of the key 8.425 support level has now occurred in the Mar silver,
it obviously looks like lower projections have been confirmed. However, because
the wave-progression from the Aug 2005 low still calls for a FINAL, primary
wave-[5] advance to new highs (+9.17), it is likely that the current drop is
wave-(c)-of-[4]. In which case, prices ought to bottom in the next day or two;
at the 19.1%-retracement projections from the 1993 and 2001 lows, and a
11.795%-depreciation from the Dec 12 peak, or about 8.27-to-8.17 basis the March
contract. Key support for the Feb gold remains at 496.80 and 486.40-483.90.
Near-term resistance for Mar silver is at 8.53, 8.61, 8.685-8.75 and 8.81-8.875.
STOCKS: [See Chart] Since the nearby
contract in the S&P 500 finally closed well-above the 1265.90-1269.80 resistance
level, we should have confirmed a rally to the next key resistance area, or
1295.30-1297.80. This area yields the 65.45%-retracement projection from the
2000 top, AND an appreciation of 69.1%-from the 2002 low. Anyhow, since a move
to this area in the March S&P will likely coincide with a rally to the key
85.4%-retracement level in the March Dow Jones contact, or 11085-to-11160, a
HIGH PROBABILITY/HIGH POTENTIAL selling opportunity could occur in the next
1-to-2-weeks. By the way, traders should also note, because the Dow Jones
Industrial Average has finally penetrated the March top, this is actually the
first time (this year) that I can make a case for a completed, DOUBLE-THREE,
i.e., from the 2002 low. Near-term support for the March S&P is now at
1269.50-1266.00, 1260.00 and 1255.00-
1252.50.
COFFEE: While the near-term pattern in
coffee is open to several possible interpretations presently, BOTH the
intermediate-and-long-term formations remain BULLISH. Consequently, since I can
now also make a case for a 5-wave/ impulse-pattern-up from last weeks 93.50 low
in the Mar contract, I’m inclined to go ahead and attempt to re-enter the
long-side. To that end, the best support cluster is now at the 38.2%-retracement
projection from the 2001 low, AND a 27.25%-depreciation from the 2005 top, or
100.50-to-99.30. A close MUCH BELOW this area could be pretty negative
near-term, however, as the next lower areas of key support are at 95.30-94.65
and 90.00-89.25. Resistance for Mar coffee is at 103.85-104.65, 106.75-107.60,
109.05 and 110.55-111.35.
COCOA: [See New Trades] Although a close
BELOW key support at 1444-1421 could produce a MAJOR sell-signal in the Mar
cocoa, the recent penetration of the 1452-1474 resistance area (nearby contract)
still suggests AT LEAST one more “leg-up”. If so, given that I show VERY
POWERFUL resistance clusters at BOTH the 1502-1519 and 1551-1582 levels, we may
be looking to re-enter short...sometime in the next couple of weeks. By the way,
IF the 1421 support area is exceeded first, then the next closest support level
will be 1353-1341.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 12/28/05
SOYBEANS: Traders/Hedgers (33%) can sell
the Mar soybeans at 6.39 3/4, using a stop at 6.56 1/4.
CORN: Stand-aside-Tuesday
WHEAT: Traders/Hedgers (33%) can sell Mar
wheat at 3.43 3/4, using a stop at 3.54 3/4.
SILVER: Traders can the buy on Mar silver
to 8.475, using a stop at 8.315.
STOCKS: Traders can sell the Dec e-mini
S&P at 1294.75, use stop at 131.75.
COFFEE: Keep the stop on long March coffee
at 97.15.
COCOA: Traders can sell Mar cocoa at 1549,
using a stop at 1593.
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